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The calculations of the climate impact of measures are based on many prerequisites and assumptions. Many of the calculations are based on external analyses. Assessments of the rate of phasing in and emission-reducing impact are generally carried out by the Agency for Climate in consultation with the associated responsible municipal enterprises. This is partly based on professional assessments of practical feasibility and technological maturity.

All the measures in Table 2.2a of Chapter 2 Proposition 1/2022 were calculated with an annual measure impact during the period through to 2030. Table 2.2a presents the impact of each measure in the years 2022 and 2025.

The impact specified for the measures in the Climate Budget only include direct GHG emissions within the boundaries of the municipality. The quantified impact of measures on indirect emissions (emissions that occur outside the municipal boundary) is not included in the analysis. This is in accordance with the delimitation of the climate budget and the municipal emissions inventory from the Norwegian Environment Agency. The greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) are included. Conversion of greenhouse gases to CO₂ equivalents is carried out in accordance with the Norwegian Environment Agency’s guidance, using factors obtained from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007).

The annual impact of a measure is calculated as the reduction in GHG emissions compared with the emission level in the projection in the same year. The projection is thus a zero alternative which shows the anticipated development in emissions in the absence of measures. In some cases, the measure analyses are based on a more detailed zero alternative than that shown in the projection for the emission source.

The impact is calculated using the following formula for each year:

Impact = (emissions in zero alternative) – (emissions after implementation of measure)

Thus, the impacts of the measures presented in Table 2.2a of Chapter 2 Proposition 1/2022 for 2022 and 2025 constitute the difference between the emission levels in the projection in 2022 and 2025 and emissions after the measure has been implemented in 2022 and 2025.

Measure calculations can be performed using either a top-down or bottom-up methodology. Top-down is based on total emissions and assesses the proportion of emissions that can be eliminated via the measure. In the case of bottom-up, the impact of a measure is calculated as the change in activity (activity data) or emissions per unit of activity (emission factor).

Change in emissions per year

Bottom-up calculations require high-quality data concerning the change in activity or emission factor that the measure will lead to. Activity data could for example be the number of kilometres travelled, and the emission factor indicates the emission intensity of, for example, a petrol car. The change resulting from the measure could be a reduction in the number of kilometres or a transition to electric cars with zero emissions, while the emission reduction is shown as the sum of this change.

Calculations based on bottom-up methodology provide more precise estimates of the impact of individual measures than those based on top-down methodology.  In the measure analyses, an attempt was therefore made to increase the proportion of bottom-up assessments relative to top-down assessments.

Bottom-up calculations have for example been performed for measure 6 Zero emissions or sustainable biofuel in the municipality’s vehicles, where the number of vehicles, distance travelled, expectations concerning transition rate and emission factors are used to calculate the impact. An example of a top-down calculation is measure 11 Zero emissions/sustainable biofuels in the transport of bulk materials and waste from the construction sector, where a percentage emission reduction of the total emissions is estimated.

The impact calculations must also take into account the fact that the projections are partly based on estimates of emission reductions. Amongst other things, the projection includes electrification of the vehicle fleet and a reduction in road traffic as a result of the revised Oslo Package 3 (also referred to as the “road toll payment system”), other electric car benefits, as well as the blending of biofuels as a result of the sales requirement. If the measure is assumed to have an emission-reducing impact beyond what is already included in the projection, the impact of the measure will be included in the climate budget analysis.

The Climate Budget makes a distinction between measures and instruments. This distinction is described in Climate Cure 2030 (Norwegian Environment Agency, 2020). A measure is the physical actions that various actors (businesses, households and central government and municipal enterprises, etc.) can take to reduce GHG emissions, such as investments in new technological solutions, transition to less energy-intensive energy carriers or energy efficiency measures. Instruments are the governance tools that are available to government agencies to trigger specific measures such as taxes, subsidies, orders, bans, agreements, information campaigns, etc. For example, zero-emission goods and service vehicles is a measure, while an example of an instrument that is intended to contribute to this measure is loading and unloading stations for zero-emission vans.

When assessing the climate impact of the measures in the Climate Budget, the overall emission-reducing impact of the associated instruments as a whole has been analysed.

Table 2.2b describes measures that are expected to result in emission reductions, but for which it has not been possible to determine the emission-reducing impact with sufficient certainty. There are various reasons why the impact of the measures cannot be quantified, e.g. because the measures are in an early design and implementation phase or because the data and knowledge base is poor or non-existent.

Table 2.3 shows activities which reinforce the climate work being carried out in the City of Oslo and which could provide a basis for further emission reductions. This applies to communication/mobilisation, facilitating measures and reports/pilots.  It has not been possible to determine the emission-reducing impact of these activities.

In the long term, it may be possible to quantify the impact of measures from Table 2.2b and transfer them to 2.2a, if the underlying data is improved. In the 2022 Climate Budget, measure 3 Extraction of landfill gas has been moved from Table 2.2b to Table 2.2a.

The Climate Budget was prepared on the basis of the best available knowledge base. Nevertheless, the various aspects of the climate budget analysis are subject to some uncertainty.

The inventory of emissions from Norwegian municipalities is continually being developed, partly as a result of the fact that Oslo and other municipalities have called for greater precision and more frequent updating. In each publication of the emissions inventory, the entire time series is recalculated whenever a new method or data is introduced.

In cooperation with the Norwegian Environment Agency, the Agency for Climate has reviewed the existing method and assessed the potential for using local data to create a more accurate historical time series. An analysis by CICERO (2020) commissioned by the Agency for Climate identified a consistent challenge that the municipal emissions inventory does not reflect the impact of local measures implemented by the City of Oslo. This is a major challenge, particularly in the emissions sector “Other mobile combustion”, where the City of Oslo imposes requirements regarding the use of biofuel, and the climate impact is not reflected in the inventory. It is important to further develop the emissions inventory so that it reflects both actual GHG emissions in Oslo and the impact of climate measures in the Climate Budget.

There is particular uncertainty associated with the historical emission figures for fossil fuel heating and diesel-powered motorised equipment. Emissions from fossil fuel-fired heating and diesel-powered motorised equipment are calculated on the basis of sales figures from Statistics Norway and are subject to considerable uncertainty. The Norwegian Environment Agency is working to improve the method by the time of the next publication in 2021.

Continual improvements to the emissions inventory are making the analyses in the Climate Budget more accurate, and it is essential to continue the work on method development in order to improve both the quality of the figures and the inventory itself.

The projection is based on the best available knowledge concerning the driving forces that will impact on GHG emissions through to 2030. It is therefore an estimate of how GHG emissions will develop in a fictional future and is therefore subject to considerable uncertainty. Amongst other things, it can be challenging to determine the right assumptions for the transport sector, where rapid technological advances are taking place. The projection should therefore only be used as an indication of what could happen in the future in the absence of further climate measures.

Many of the measures in the Climate Budget have other benefit or cost impacts besides reductions in GHG emissions. An example of a benefit is lower air pollution and thus better air quality and health, as a result of measures which reduce car use. The measures could have economic consequences not covered by the city treasury. The electrification of vehicles is one example of a measure which could lead to higher costs for industry and residents in the short term, although lower running costs mean that the costs over the lifetime of the vehicle will not necessarily be higher. A number of measures will lead to an increase in sales of biofuels, which could potentially have negative effects for GHG emissions or biodiversity elsewhere in the world. The City of Oslo imposes requirements regarding sustainable biofuels in its procurements.

Measures in the Climate Budget may have different distributional impacts. The City Government wants distributional impacts to be analysed for all measures. However, this is groundbreaking work in an area where little information is currently available. A discussion is presented below of the distributional impacts of climate measures within mobility and fossil-free construction sites. The distributional impacts of the measures were assessed in isolation and independently of each other.

The distributional impacts of the following measures have been assessed:

• Measure 5: Road toll payment system
• Measure 7: Better cycling facilities
• Measure 8: Legislation for taxis: zero emissions by 2025
• Measures 9, 12 and 19: Goods and service transport vehicles
• Measure 17: Increased investment in public transport
• Measure 22: Street and parking measures
• Measure 24: Requirements regarding fossil-free construction sites

General considerations regarding mobility

Women tend to walk more than men, travel on public transport more and use a car less. People on low incomes tend to walk more and travel on public transport more. Amongst persons over the age of 24, the proportion who walk is highest amongst those with the lowest and highest education. Amongst persons over the age of 24 who do not have an education after primary school, the proportion travelling by car is lower than amongst other groups. Those with a higher income tend to travel by car more, but they also tend to cycle more. Those born in Norway tend to travel less by public transport less and more by car than those born in other countries.

The road toll payment system (measure 5)

On 1 June 2019, new road toll stations and a new road toll system were introduced, with more road toll sections in Oslo and the former Akershus. As a result, residents in all areas of Oslo now pay more to travel by car than before. Amongst residents of different districts of Oslo, the payment previously ranged from 8 % of car journeys (Bygdøy) to 45 % of car journeys made by residents of Oslo West (Urbanet Analyse, 2017). The current system means that persons living in the inner city, Oslo North, Hovinbyen, Østensjø and Bygdøy pay road tolls more frequently now than was previously the case. Persons living in the eastern part of the outer city and Oslo South also tend to pay road tolls more often than was previously the case, but the change is less for these groups. The current system is thus fairer geographically than before, and between 55 and 60 % of all car journeys made in Oslo are now subject to road tolls. Persons living outside Oslo are less affected than those who live in Oslo. No account has been taken of whether the journey was made by electric car or another type of car, as the underlying data did not include any information about this.

The analyses show that men tend to pay road tolls more often than women, because they tend to travel by car more. Households with multiple members are affected more than single persons, and those with medium or high incomes are affected to a greater extent than those with low incomes. This is because those with higher incomes tend to travel by car more to get to and from work. Travel to and from work is also affected more than other types of travel. The income disparities between those who pass road toll section boundaries are somewhat greater for rush-hour travel than for other journeys (Urbanet Analysis, 2017). Any future tax changes could have a different impact depending on the orientation of these.

The road toll payment system generates revenue which is used to increase accessibility for all road user groups and to finance road and public transport improvements. These benefits were not considered. The road toll payment system also reduces car use and GHG emissions and improves the urban environment (Norwegian Public Roads Administration, 2019).

Better cycling facilities (measure 7)

The bicycle is a readily accessible and affordable means of transport. Facilitating safe cycling thus offers the possibility of greater mobility for groups of the population who cannot afford or are unable to use a car, and in cases where public transport is not a viable alternative.

A cohesive and safe cycle path network makes the bicycle a more attractive means of transport for many groups in the population (children, women, the elderly, etc.), as road safety is improved and it feels safer to cycle on cycle paths rather than public roads. Safe cycling infrastructure offers particular benefits in areas with low public transport provision and areas with a heavily loaded public transport system and/or road network. An increase in the number of cyclists using the streets can help to improve public safety in vulnerable areas (Spacescape, Markör, 2016).

There are major health benefits associated with switching from passive to active forms of travel like cycling (Journal of the Norwegian Medical Association, 2020). Where an increase in cycling results in less car use, this will also reduce air and noise pollution, which will be especially beneficial for those living in areas with heavy traffic.

By removing parking spaces on public streets in favour of cycling infrastructure, public land will benefit more groups within the population. The reduction in the number of on-street parking spaces could disadvantage some groups, such as people with disabilities and businesses that depend on goods and service transport. The consequences of facilitating cycling are assessed in connection with the planning of new routes, and mitigation measures are implemented in order to maintain accessibility for the aforementioned groups wherever possible. Mitigation measures could for example include reserved parking for disabled persons and goods deliveries at suitable locations in areas close to where parking spaces have been removed.

Taxi legislation (measure 8)

Oslo has introduced environmental requirements for taxis. As early as 2017, a range of zero-emission cars were available which could match the overall cost of conventional fossil fuel cars. Since then, zero-emission cars have developed rapidly. It is assumed that the environmental requirement will not adversely affect the incomes of taxi drivers, if the necessary charging and refuelling infrastructure is in place before the environmental requirement enters into force (City of Oslo, Agency for Urban Environment, 2017). The coronavirus pandemic and its associated measures and new national permit regulations are likely to have a greater impact on the industry. Developments in the industry going forward as regards profitability and structure are therefore uncertain. This is discussed in a report from the Institute of Transport Economics and the Fafo Research Foundation on taxis in Norway through to 2020 (Institute of Transport Economics, 2020).

Goods and service vehicles (measures 9, 12 and 19)

Climate requirements will affect the goods transport industry, but it is uncertain exactly how it will affect the industry and what it will mean for different types of businesses. In 2020, a survey was conducted in the industry, which was followed up by a number of in-depth interviews (Hafslund, 2021; Zero, 2021). Barriers to the transition to zero-emission heavy transport were then examined. The most important barrier highlighted by the industry is financial risk. This applies to both small and large players. It can be assumed that businesses which operate with low margins will be worst-placed to adapt and make substantial investments in new zero-emission vehicles. Predictability concerning instruments is important for businesses if they are to plan purchases and see the overall cost of their investments.

Facilitating the more efficient transport of goods and services will result in a reduction in the number of vehicle-kilometres per product. Both a reduction in the number of vehicle-kilometres and the electrification of vans and trucks will make a general contribution to lower NOx emissions, lower noise levels, and a better urban environment for those living or staying in the area in which the transport takes place.

Increased investment in public transport (measure 17)

Good mobility solutions bring people from different parts of a region together and reduce inequality by giving everyone the practical and financial opportunity to participate in working life and lead an active life outside work (Ruter, 2020a).  Public transport is for everyone and gives everyone the opportunity to travel. In Oslo, 34 % of the population live in a household which has no access to a car. In the inner-city area, this applies to more than half of the population. Attractive public transport services help to make this possible. More than half of the city’s population live less than 500 metres from a public transport stop which is convenient for them. 80 % of the population live in an area with public transport services with at least four departures per hour (Urbanet Analyse, 2021).

Public transport is funded through ticket revenue, funding from the road toll payment system and public procurement. Funding through the road toll payment system involves a transfer from those travelling by car to those travelling by public transport. However, both public transport and the road toll payment system itself ensure better accessibility on the roads for commercial traffic and for those who have to travel by car, as both help to reduce traffic on the roads.

Street and parking measures (measure 22)

As far as the Agency for Climate is aware, no systematic analysis has been carried out of who will benefit or be disadvantaged by the parking measures in Oslo, or how it will impact on different groups. In recent years, the City of Oslo has redeployed many spaces for use by cyclists, to improve the accessibility of public transport and for city living. This entails the reallocation of land from those who travel by car to cyclists, public transport users and people in the city. In practice, these will often be the same people, albeit in different situations. Emphasis has been placed on ensuring access to parking for disabled permit holders, and provision for goods deliveries.

In 2015, the Institute of Transport Economics studied the distributional effects of parking facilities with regard to housing and employment (Institute of Transport Economics, 2015). The study showed that, although single people and those on low incomes do not tend to have their own parking space, they do tend to have good public transport services close to their home. In Oslo, many buildings were completed before the municipality began to require parking spaces close to housing. The current parking regulations indicate that fewer parking spaces are being established adjacent to smaller apartments in central districts. These are apartments where small households, younger people and students on lower incomes can live. Homes with parking spaces are also more expensive than those without. As regards workplaces, there are minor differences in parking access at workplaces linked to income and household structure. People earning less than NOK 200,000 are more likely to state that they do not have their own parking space close to their workplace. However, these people have good public transport provision close to where they live. There is no difference between households with an income in excess of NOK 200,000.

The residents’ parking scheme (City of Oslo, City Council, 2012) was first introduced on a trial basis in the districts of Frogner, St. Hanshaugen and Gamle Oslo in January 2009. The scheme was evaluated later the same year (Urbanet Analyse, 2009). The evaluation consisted of a pre- and post-trial survey which involved the recording of cars and questionnaire surveys. The evaluation showed that the scheme has given residents easier access to parking where they live, in accordance with the aim of the scheme. The proportion of parked cars of external origin, i.e. cars that did not belong to residents in the district, was significantly reduced, especially in Frogner and St. Hanshaugen. Nine out of every ten residents found it easier to find a parking space. More than half agreed with the statement “Residents’ parking makes it easier for me to live in central Oslo”. The picture was more mixed for the business community. When the scheme was made permanent, changes were made to the scheme to take account of this. For example, the rule concerning maximum parking time was abolished.

Requirements regarding fossil-free construction sites (measure 24)

In autumn 2020, the Vice Mayor for Urban Development pursued a dialogue with the major industry players regarding requirements for fossil-free construction sites. During these meetings, it was stated that the industry can meet the requirement, but at an additional cost. Requirements regarding fossil-free construction sites mean that biofuel must be used, which is more expensive than fossil fuels. Biofuels cost around 50 to 100 % more than traditional fuels. In addition, there are administrative costs associated with gaining access to biofuels. These costs impact equally on all players, but they can be more challenging to meet for smaller players. The municipality may therefore grant dispensations in individual cases in order to avoid imposing requirements that are either impossible or disproportionately demanding to meet, provided that the applicant can implement other measures to compensate for the lack of emission reductions.

The City of Oslo has set very ambitious climate targets. The Climate Budget is a management tool regarding the way in which the municipality will achieve its climate targets.

In order to steer emissions over the term of the economic plan towards attainment of the climate target in 2030, annual emission limits are established through the Climate Budget. These emission limits are an aid in budgeting for a steady downward trend in emissions through to the targets in 2023 and 2030, and are used as a basis for prioritising and implementing measures in the Climate Budget. Developments in emissions are likely to be different in reality, which means that the emission limits between 2020 and 2030 can be adjusted in the annual climate budgets as new information becomes available.

The 2022 Climate Budget applies to the period covered by the economic plan of 2022 to 2025. The budget is aimed at achieving a reduction in emissions of 43 % in 2022 and 60 % in 2025, compared with 2009 levels (see Table 3 below). In the 2022 Climate Budget, the emission limit has been adjusted relative to previous climate budgets. The climate budgets of previous years assumed that the adopted target of a 41 % reduction in emissions in 2020 would be achieved. The City Government’s annual report for 2020 warned that the 2020 target was unlikely to be met, and that the emission limit would therefore not pass through this target. In the 2022 Climate Budget, the emission limit will start from the most recent emissions inventory in 2019, with a straight line down to the target of a 52 % reduction in emissions in 2023. The updated emission limit represents a more realistic emission limit to strive for.

Figure 3 of Proposition 1/2022, Chapter 2 presents an analysis of the climate impact of adopted measures where emission impacts are highly uncertain, and new measures under consideration. This analysis indicates that there is potential for further cuts in emissions over and above those brought about by the measures for which the impact is calculated in Table 2.2a of Proposition 1/2022. The analysis was carried out to estimate how close to the 2030 climate target the City of Oslo will come using measures which we are aware of today. The calculations are subject to considerable uncertainty, yet they show the possible development in emissions if these measures are implemented with full target attainment. If all the measures and instruments are implemented with the assumptions that have been applied, it may be possible to achieve an emission reduction of 72 % by 2030.

The table above shows the potential for reductions in emissions compared with 2009 levels from the analysis, as well as the annual targets and emissions trajectory (impact of the measures in Table 2.2a of the Climate Budget included in the projection) contained in Figure 3 of Proposition 1/2022, Chapter 2. Measures where emission impacts are uncertain estimates the climate impact of measures and instruments from Table 2.2b in Proposition 1/2022, including carbon capture and storage at Fortum Oslo Varme AS’ facility at Klemetsrud, which is presented in Table 2.3. These measures have been adopted politically at either central government or municipal level, but are not included in the quantified measures in Table 2.2a of Proposition 1/2022 due to uncertainty associated with the figures, orientation and implementation:

• Carbon capture and storage (CCS) at Klemetsrud from 2026 (from Table 2.3)
• Ban on the use of mineral oil for temporary heating from 2022 (measure 27 in Table 2.2b)
• Requirements regarding fossil-free construction sites in all new zoning plans (measure 24 in Table 2.2b)
• Zero-emission zone within the Car-free city living area from 2023 (measure 20 in Table 2.2b)
• Measures from Table 2.2b with relatively low estimated emission reductions: Increased investment in public transport, climate-friendly travel to/from work, zero-emission motorised equipment, zero-emission/sustainable biofuel for non-Ruter buses and in transport of the municipality’s procurement

The calculations for New measures under consideration includes an estimate for the climate impact of measures which are being assessed, where the direction has not been clarified and where no firm decision concerning implementation has yet been made.

• Zero-emission zone within Ring 2 from 2026
• Carbon tax corresponding to NOK 2,000 in 2030 (without compensation in the form of relief from road use tax, etc.)
• Gradual escalation of prices in the road toll ring for fossil fuel cars (+NOK 100 for fossil cars per passage compared with zero-emission vehicles in 2030)
• Escalation of the sales requirement for biofuel to 40 % in road transport in 2030
• Elimination of emissions from the incineration of household waste

To prevent overlapping, and therefore the overestimation of the impacts of measures, consideration has been given to how the measures collectively impact on activity, technological choices and fuel amongst the various emission sectors. Nevertheless, there is considerable uncertainty linked to possible overlapping between the measures. There is also uncertainty associated with overlapping between the measures in this analysis and the measures quantified in Table 2.2a in Proposition 1/2022.

A more detailed description is presented below of how these measures and instruments have been calculated.

Carbon capture and storage at Klemetsrud from 2026

The calculation is based on CO₂ emissions from Klemetsrud originating from the incineration of household waste outside Oslo, industrial waste and imported waste. This is related to population development and waste volumes in the projection. Carbon capture and storage at Klemetsrud may not be fully operational until 2026 at the earliest. The potential for emission reductions is estimated to be just under 200,000 tonnes CO₂e annually. The calculation only includes the fossil fraction in the waste (fossil CO₂).

Requirements regarding fossil-free construction sites in all new zoning plans and a ban on the use of mineral oil for temporary heating from 2022

The calculation includes an estimate of the type of impact that the requirement for fossil-free construction sites in new zoning plans could have. This is based on estimates of the number of square metres of buildings (housing and industry) which will be covered by the requirements in zoning plans through to 2030. The Agency for Planning and Building Services has estimated a gradual increase of up to 86 % in 2030, based on empirical figures. As there is no underlying data for a zero alternative, expected emissions from the entire emissions sector «other mobile combustion» are used in the calculation. A discretionary downward adjustment of the projections of 30 % in each year has also been implemented. This is partly based on the assumption that 20 % of the construction activity is municipal (which is already fossil-free), and that there is a given share in other mobile combustion that is used for other purposes. In isolation, this measure could cut emissions by up to 155,000 tonnes CO₂e in 2030.

A ban on the use of mineral oil for temporary heating is also included in the calculation. This is based on the Norwegian Environment Agency’s study concerning the potential impact of a ban on the use of mineral oil for heating buildings through to 2030 (Norwegian Environment Agency, 2021c). The Norwegian Environment Agency estimates that the measure could result in an annual national reduction of just under 85,000 tonnes CO₂e. For Oslo, the impact of the measure was calculated by using the Norwegian Environment Agency’s estimate, scaled down for the population projections for Oslo from 2022 to 2030, which are included in the projections. The scaling down from the national estimate leads to considerable uncertainty in the calculation, partly because demand for heating will differ between the regions. However, it is the best underlying data that is available. In 2022, it is estimated that the ban could have an impact of up to 11,000 tonnes CO₂e.

Overlap assessments of the two measures have been carried out, where the ban on the use of mineral oil for temporary heating was scaled down over the period, as it will be covered by the requirements concerning fossil-free construction sites. This means that the impact on emissions of a ban on the use of mineral oil for temporary heating is set to zero in 2030. The uncertainties in the data mean that the Agency for Climate has no basis on which to assess whether the impacts of the two measures are conservative or optimistic, and the impact calculations should only be seen as illustrations of possible climate impacts.

Zero-emission zone within the Car-free city living area from 2023 – 2030

The calculation is based on a report from Norconsult (2021) concerning the isolated emission-reducing impact of introducing a zero-emission zone within the “Car-free city living” area (Kvadraturen and adjacent areas in central Oslo) from 2023, with expansion to within Ring 2 from 2026 to 2030. The report assumes that the zero-emission zone will result in a reduction in the use of fossil fuel-powered cars, vans and heavy vehicles. The impact of introducing a zero-emission zone within the Car-free city living area is estimated to be 8,000 tonnes CO₂e in 2023. This is only the impact within the boundaries of the City of Oslo itself. If the potential impact of such a zone for road transport generally (including that outside the boundaries of the City of Oslo) is also considered, it could have an impact of up to 27,000 tonnes CO₂e.

The calculations performed by Norconsult (2021) indicate the impact of introducing a zero-emission zone within the Car-free city living area from 2023, with expansion to within Ring 2 from 2026 to 2030. Thus, they have not provided any figures for a zero-emission zone within the Car-free city living area from 2026 to 2030.  The Agency for Climate has therefore projected a linear decrease in the number of fossil kilometres travelled corresponding to the decline calculated by Norconsult for the period 2023-2025.

Measures from Table 2.2b with relatively low estimated emission reductions

The analysis also includes the possible impact of measures from Table 2.2b in Proposition 1/2022, Chapter 2, where the basis for the figures has made it possible to estimate the impacts of measures. The measures for which a possible impact has been estimated are: measure 17 Increased investment in public transport, measure 18 Zero emissions/sustainable biofuels in transport in connection with the purchase of goods and services, measure 21 Climate-friendly travel to/from work, measure 23 Zero emissions/sustainable biofuels in non-Ruter buses, and measure 26 Zero-emission motorised equipment.

The calculations were partly based on how the measures impact on the level of activity in road transport and the phasing in of electricity, compared with the projection.

In the analysis of the measures which impact on road transport, corrections have been made for overlaps in order to avoid the double-counting of impacts. The overlap assessments represent a considerable uncertainty in the analysis.

Zero-emission zone within Ring 2 from 2026

The calculations were taken from a report by Norconsult (2021) on the emission impacts of zero-emission zones in Oslo. They calculated that a zero-emission zone within Ring 2 from 2026 could have an emission-reducing impact within the City of Oslo’s boundaries of 31,000 tonnes CO₂e. Such a zone would also have an impact outside the boundaries of the City of Oslo, as the vehicles which are converted will also be used outside the boundaries of the municipality. Norconsult has calculated the overall impact of a zero-emission zone within Ring 2 from 2026 to be a reduction in emissions of up to 73,000 tonnes CO₂e. The figures refer to the isolated impact of a zero-emission zone, and have not been assessed with respect to other instruments such as the road toll ring or similar.

In the calculation, the Agency for Climate subtracted the impact that was added from 2026-2030 for the zero-emission zone only within the Car-free city living area (see above).

Carbon tax equivalent to NOK 2,000 in 2030

The calculation assumes that a carbon tax corresponding to NOK 2,000 in 2030 will affect the number of vehicle-kilometres travelled by cars, vans, heavy vehicles and buses. The calculation does not include the effect of carbon tax for non-road vehicles, industry, etc. An increase in the carbon tax of NOK 2,000 per tonne corresponds to NOK 3/litre (including deduction from the blending of biofuel). It is estimated that this will result in a reduction in the number of vehicle-kilometres from fossil fuel cars of around 3 % in 2030. It is also estimated that an increase in carbon tax in 2030 would result in a transfer of goods to sea and rail of 2.5 %, along with a reduction in the number of vehicle-kilometres of 20 % as a result of the optimisation of logistics. The assumptions are the same as those used in national calculations of the impact on an increase in the carbon tax. The calculations assume that road use tax will not be adjusted to compensate for the increase in carbon tax. In total for all road transport, an isolated reduction of around 51,000 tonnes CO₂e can be achieved in 2030 with a carbon tax of NOK 2,000, with the largest reduction stemming from heavy vehicles. A tax increase will have the greatest impact for those who travel the longest distances and could therefore act as a stimulus for those who travel extensively, e.g. taxi drivers, to change their vehicle sooner than they would otherwise have done. In order to avoid any overlap between the impact of the zero-emission zone and the carbon tax, an assumption has been made regarding the overall impact on the number of vehicle-kilometres arising from the two measures.

Gradual escalation of prices in the road toll ring for fossil fuel cars

The calculation is based on a study by Norconsult (2020) concerning how escalation of the road toll payment system, with a gradual price rise towards +NOK 100 per passage for fossil fuel cars in 2030, would affect the phasing in of electric vehicles and the number of vehicle-kilometres travelled by cars and vans. It was only possible to obtain figures for cars and vans. This means that no impact has been assumed for heavy vehicles and buses for this measure. The impact of the measure is therefore underestimated. To include the impact relating to heavy vehicles and buses, a more thorough study will be necessary.

Norconsult (2020) shows that the measure will increase the proportion of electric vehicles in 2030 amongst cars from 64 % to 85 %. In the case of electric vans, it is assumed that the measure will result in an increase from 40 % to 58 % in 2030. In isolation, it is estimated that this measure could contribute to a reduction in emissions from road transport of just under 100,000 tonnes CO₂e in 2030.

Escalation of the sales requirement for biofuel to 40 % in road transport in 2030

The projection of Oslo’s emissions through to 2030, discussed in section 2.1, includes a share of biofuel in road transport of 16 % over the period from 2022 to 2030. This is the expected actual volume percentage without the double-counting of advanced biofuels. The central government sales requirement in 2021 is 24.5 %, with a secondary requirement of 9 % for advanced biofuels. In Climate Cure 2030, a measure was considered where the blending requirement in 2030 was increased to 40 % for road transport. The analysis includes the potential impact of increasing the sales requirement for biofuel to 40 %. Advanced biofuels are counted twice, which means that only 50 % of the volume is needed if advanced biofuel is chosen over other biofuels. Based on this, a development in the sales requirement through to 2030 which follows Climate Cure has been assumed. However, for the years from 2021 to 2025, Oslo’s projection for biofuels lies above Climate Cure, which means that the measure will not have an additional climate impact during these years. At the same time, the industry has pointed out that it will continue to use some conventional biofuels. An assumption has therefore been made that some conventional biofuels will continue to be used until 2024. The calculation also assumes that only advanced biofuel will be sold from 2025. This is based on the fact that advanced biofuel will be cheaper than conventional biofuel after the road use tax is introduced on 1 July 2020 (due to double-counting).

The impact of the measure has been calculated based on the difference between the sales requirement and the bio-share assumed in the projection. A 40 % blending requirement in 2030 would give an actual volume of 20 % after the double-counting of advanced biofuel has been avoided. An additional impact from the use of 4 % additional biofuel has therefore been calculated in 2030, which corresponds to around 6,500 tonnes CO₂e in 2030 following an overlap correction with respect to the other measures presented here.

Waste management

The analysis also looked at the impact of eliminating all emissions from the incineration of household waste, with escalation from 2023 through to the full impact from 2026. This is based on the projection for Oslo’s emissions from household waste incinerated at Haraldrud. In 2030, this corresponds to just under 70,000 tonnes CO₂e.

The City of Oslo’s Climate Budget is based on the Norwegian Environment Agency’s emission inventory at municipal level (Norwegian Environment Agency, 2021a), which covers the years 2009-2019. A brief description of developments in GHG emissions in Oslo is included in Proposition 1/2022, Chapter 2.3.

Impact calculations for measures in the Climate Budget are based on a projection of the City of Oslo’s emissions through to 2030 (CICERO, 2019). This projection is often referred to as a ‘baseline trajectory’ and represents an estimate of how emissions might develop in the absence of new measures. The projection is based on the best available information concerning the factors that will impact on GHG emissions through to 2030, including population growth, technological advances and economic development.

The coronavirus pandemic has so far had major consequences for Oslo in both 2020 and 2021. The pandemic resulted in an economic downturn, and may have impacted on factors such as population growth in Oslo and technological advances. The long-term effects are hard to predict. Infection control measures to combat coronavirus have resulted in changes in travel habits and commercial activity, amongst other things. Overall, this could impact on the level of GHG emissions in both the short and the longer term. The knowledge base that will be needed to correct for this uncertainty in the projection or the climate budget analysis is still inadequate.

The projection includes the emission-reducing impact of approved central government, regional and municipal policies as of May 2018.  The impact of municipal climate measures adopted thereafter is not included. Developments in emissions in the projection assume that adopted policies are implemented as planned, and trigger effective measures without any delays. The following measures and instruments are included in the projection:

• Road toll payment system: Revised agreement concerning Oslo Package 3 for 2017-2036 of 5 June 2016 and the supplementary agreement of 13 June 2017
• National ban on the oil-fired heating of buildings from 1 January 2020
• National sales requirement for biofuel for road transport use (it was decided to maintain the proportion of biofuel at a constant 2019 level (16 percent in real volume terms) during the period 2020-2030)
• Extraction of landfill gas

The projection is recalculated in the event of updates to the municipal emission inventory and has been updated with historical emissions for the years from 2009 to 2017 (Norwegian Environment Agency, 2021a). Compared with the baseline year 2009, the projection shows estimated decreases in GHG emissions of 22 % in 2020, 27 % in 2025 and 33 % in 2030. Historical emissions and the projection of emissions in the absence of new measures after 2017 through to 2030 are shown in Figure 1.

With regard to road transport, emissions from cars are expected to decline sharply through to 2030. This is partly due to the transition from fossil fuel cars to electric cars, an increase in the use of biofuels and a reduction in the number of kilometres driven per person. Implementation of the revised agreement concerning Oslo Package 3 (the road toll payment system) will be crucial for realising this emission reduction. Although emissions from road transport are expected to decline overall, it is estimated that emissions from heavy vehicles will increase through to 2030 if no new measures are implemented.

The ban on oil-fired heating from 2020 is expected to result in a decrease in emissions from heating. Decreases in emissions from landfill sites, biological waste, wastewater and industry are also projected, but these emission sources do not have a major impact on overall emissions.

In the other emission sectors, a slightly rising trend in emissions is projected through to 2030 as a result of both population growth and economic growth. This particularly applies to waste incineration and energy supply. The emissions sector accounted for around 21 % of emissions in 2017, but its share of Oslo’s GHG emissions will increase to around 29 % in 2030. In the “other mobile combustion” emissions sector, emissions from diesel-powered motorised equipment (including construction machinery) in the construction sector are dominant. It is estimated that these emissions could increase by around 12 % by 2030 compared with 2017. This assumes that the growth is proportional to the population of Oslo.

Road transport is still projected to be the largest emission sector in 2030, but waste incineration and energy supply and other mobile combustion (e.g. construction machinery) are well on their way to taking over the position of dominant emission sectors.

There must be transparency regarding assumptions and the methods used in assessments of the emission-reducing impact of measures in the Climate Budget. All assessments must be verifiable. A description is given below of the methods used to estimate the impacts of the measures described in Table 2.2a of Proposition 1/2022, Chapter 2. For further information on methodology, see Chapter 5 later in this document.

Measure 1. Phasing out of oil-fired heating of buildings

The emission-reducing impact of the measure is included in the projection. The measure is the main reason why emissions from heating have declined sharply in recent years, and the projection assumes that emissions from fossil fuels will drop to zero in 2020 as a result of the ban on oil-fired heating from 1 January 2020. However, the Norwegian Environment Agency’s emissions inventory indicates that emissions from heating using fossil gas are higher than expected, and that the assumption that fossil fuel emissions will drop to zero in 2020 remains unlikely to be fulfilled. The projection has therefore been updated with an increase of around 24,000 tonnes CO₂e through to 2030, which corrects for the overestimated impact in the projection.  Although it is possible to apply for an exemption/dispensation from the ban, only one dispensation is valid as of May 2021. It has therefore been assumed that emissions from fossil oil for heating purposes will be zero from 2022 onwards.

Measure 2. Phasing out of fossil oil and gas in district heating (peak load)

The impact of the measure is estimated at 2,700 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 2,600 tonnes in 2025. The calculation for the measure is based on activity data from Fortum Oslo Varme AS (Fortum Oslo Varme AS, 2020 and 2021) for the years from 2015 to 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, along with activity data from Avantor and Nydalen Energi AS (Avantor, 2020; Nydalen Energi AS, 2021) for the years from 2015 to 2020. Estimates for methane and nitrous oxide emissions from biofuels have also been added to the calculation, based on the indicator for the proportions of methane and nitrous oxide in emissions from district heating from the Norwegian Environment Agency (2021a).

The impact of the measures shows the difference between the projection and the estimated residual emissions following the measure. The projection already includes an expectation that emission levels will be reduced through to 2030. This means that the impact of the measures will be reduced correspondingly over the period, even though the residual emissions after the measure are assumed to be constant. The impact of the measure for 2022 is therefore greater than that for 2025.

From 2022, it is assumed that residual fossil emissions from peak loads will be fixed at around 800 tonnes and 70 tonnes CO₂e annually from Fortum Oslo Varme AS and Nydalen Energi AS respectively. This is due to the fact that some fossil gas will be used for pressure relief of the system and test operation. The fossil share may increase, e.g. in the event of the poor availability of biofuel. The impact of the measure is uncertain, as the calculation was based on Fortum Oslo Varme AS’ objective.

Measure 3. Extraction of landfill gas

The emission-reducing impact of the measure is reflected in the municipal emissions inventory and is included in the projection. In the 2022 Climate Budget, the measure has been moved from Table 2.2b to Table 2.2a due to methodological improvements in the calculation which ensure that the impact of the measure is reflected in the emissions inventory and is therefore included in the projection. The measure concerns the landfill sites at Stubberud, Rommen and Grønmo.

Measure 4. National sales requirement of 24.5 % biofuel

The emission-reducing impact of the measure is included in the projection. However, biofuel sales fell by 2 percentage points in 2020 (Norwegian Environment Agency, 2021d), partly as a result of tax changes. This meant that biofuel sales were lower than assumed in the projection for 2020. The projection has been corrected accordingly. A further increase in the sales requirement could result in the measure having an additional impact in future climate budgets.

Measure 5. Road toll payment system

The emission-reducing impact of the measure is included in the projection. The impact of the measure is mainly due to the phasing in of electric cars. As of the first half of 2021, developments in the proportion of electricity are somewhat higher than assumed in the projection. The projection shows an estimated decline in emissions from road transport of 9 % from 2022 to 2025. Much of this decrease can be attributed to the impact of the road toll payment system, but other policies relating to road transport, such as central government and local electric car benefits, also play a role.

Measure 6. Zero emissions/sustainable biofuels in the municipality’s vehicle fleet

The impact of the measure is estimated at 1,700 tonnes CO₂e in both 2022 and 2025. The impact of the measure was calculated using data from the Agency for Improvement and Development concerning the municipal vehicle fleet, along with actual data concerning the average distances travelled by the City of Oslo’s vehicles (Development and Competence Agency, 2021). Emissions for 2018, 2019 and 2020 are used as a basis in the calculation of the impact of the measure, and as a baseline, it is assumed that the vehicle fleet and distance travel will remain constant at the 2018 level. It is assumed that emissions will be reduced by 50 % in 2021 compared with 2020, and that emissions will be close to zero in 2022. In order to achieve the estimated impact of the measure, it will be important that the goal of a complete transition to zero emissions or sustainable biofuels is followed up within relevant municipal enterprises.

Measure 7. Better cycling facilities

The impact of the measure is estimated to be 2,200 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 2,900 tonnes CO₂e by the end of 2025. The emission-reducing impact of the measure is calculated as a result of cycling replacing car travel. The impact is calculated based on a reduction in the number of kilometres travelled by car, corrected for the proportion of electric cars. The rate of phasing in is based on population figures and the current shares of bicycle and electric car use through to 2025 from the projection. The median travel distance for journeys made by bicycle is estimated to be 3 km (IRIS, 2017). The proportion of new bicycle journeys transferred from car journeys is set to an average of a lower and an upper estimate of 11 % and 34 %. The prerequisite for the lower estimate is based on 11 % of those cycling in Oslo today citing the car as their alternative means of transport (Urbanet Analyse, 2015). The upper estimate is based on the assumption that the transfer is proportional to the distribution of transport means.

The Agency for Urban Environment (2021a) has assessed realistic bike shares through to 2025 using data from the city’s bicycle counters and the national travel habits survey (Norwegian Public Roads Administration, 2020; Urbanet Analyse, 2021). A one percentage point increase has been incorporated from 2022 to 2025.

Measure 8. Legislation for taxis: zero emissions by 2025

The impact of the measure is estimated to be 4,400 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 15,300 tonnes CO₂e in 2025. The impact of the measure was estimated on the basis of figures from Statistics Norway (2021c) concerning annual distance travelled and an estimated growth in traffic in line with the projection, i.e. +0.81 % annually[1]. It is assumed that the proportion of zero-emission taxis without this measure (the zero alternative) will develop more slowly than the development in electric in the projection for the City of Oslo’s emissions through to 2030. This is because taxis are used more continuously and have different charging requirements than ordinary cars. Actual data for the renewable share in the vehicle fleet in 2018, 2019 and 2020 was taken from the taxi centres (Agency for Urban Environment, 2021b). It has not been possible to obtain complete data for 2021 due to new national regulations. The assumptions regarding the phasing-in rate are based on best judgement, with gradual phasing-in of 30 % in 2022, 60 % in 2023, 80 % in 2024 and 100 % from 1 January 2025.

The impact of the measure assumes that the environmental requirement is enforced. Under the professional transport regulations, it is the police and the Norwegian Public Roads Administration that are the control authority. The greatest uncertainties in the calculation are linked to the number of taxis, the distance they travel, the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the industry, and the rate at which zero-emission taxis are phased in.

Measure 9. Zero-emission goods and service transport vehicles

The impact of the measure is estimated to be 1,200 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 6,100 tonnes CO₂e in 2025. Much of the impact of the electrification of vans is already included in the projection, and this measure is based on further increases in the proportion of electric vans. The impact of the measure was calculated based on estimated sales figures for electric vans in Oslo. The reason why the impact of the measure in the 2022 budget was lower compared with the 2021 budget is that, although the market share for electric vans in 2020 and 2021 was high, the rate of phasing-in was overestimated in the 2021 budget.

It is assumed that everyone who switches to an electric van will use Enova’s support scheme, and this is therefore used as an indicator of developments in the sales figures for electric vans. The analysis indicates that 27 % of vans operating in Oslo in 2025 could be electric, 5 percentage points above that assumed in the projection. An important prerequisite for achieving the impact of the measure is that the instruments for the measure (presented in Table 2.2a of Proposition 1/2022) are implemented in full. If instruments are not fully implemented, the development will be approximately the same as the share of electric vans in the projection for Oslo. The provision of sufficient charging facilities for vans is considered to be particularly important for continuing the development.

Measure 10. Zero-emission buses in public transport

Measure 11. Zero emissions/sustainable biofuel in the transport of bulk materials and waste from construction sites on behalf of the City of Oslo

The impact of the measure is estimated to be 2,000 tonnes CO₂e annually during the term of the economic plan. The calculation is based on the assumption that total emissions from trucks carrying bulk materials in the City of Oslo according to the Institute of Transport Economics (2019) amount to around 10,000 tonnes CO_2e and that the City of Oslo accounts for around one fifth of the turnover (Entreprenørforeningen for bygg og anlegg, 2019) in the construction market. The impact assumes that all heavy vehicles used for transporting bulk materials and waste which are collected from and delivered to municipal construction sites are zero-emission or will use sustainable biofuel from 2022. It is considered that the players in the market will need some time to adjust to the transition, and that it will take a little while before all contracts are implemented with zero-emission/sustainable biofuel. A half-impact has therefore been used in 2020 and 2021.

Measure 12. Pilot city for zero-emission heavy vehicles

The impact of the measure is estimated to be 3,800 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 17,400 tonnes CO₂e in 2025. This is in addition to 2,000 tonnes CO₂e per year from climate requirements for bulk material transport (measure 11). The calculation of the impact of the measure is based on a trend in the development of the number of registered electric and biogas-powered trucks in Oslo. For electric trucks, further exponential growth is expected through to 2025. Further linear growth is expected for biogas-powered trucks. A ceiling has been established according to which the proportion of electric and biogas-powered vehicles cannot exceed 45 %, as surveys from Hafslund (2021) and ZERO (2021) indicate that not all areas of the truck market will be electrified by 2025. The calculation assumes that all existing instruments will continue at full strength. The provision of sufficient charging facilities for heavy vehicles is considered to be particularly important for continuing the development.

Measure 13. Zero emissions/sustainable biofuel in municipal machinery

The impact of the measure is estimated at 900 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 1,600 tonnes in 2025. The calculation for the measure is based on reported figures for diesel consumption by construction machinery in the City of Oslo’s Environmental and Climate Report 2020 (City of Oslo, 2021). The emission level from 2018 is used as a baseline in the calculations, i.e. it is assumed that consumption will remain constant at the 2018 level and that emissions will be zero in 2023. It is assumed that emissions will be reduced by 50 % from 2020 to 2022.

Measure 14. Zero-emission public transport – ferries

The impact of the measure is estimated to be 6,500 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 9,000 tonnes in 2025 in total for the Nesodden ferries, island ferries and high-speed ferries (from 2025). The estimated reduction in emissions upon transition to all-electric operation for the Nesodden ferries is estimated to be around 5,900 tonnes CO₂e collectively for the three ferries “Kongen”, “Dronningen” and “Prinsen”. This impact will be achieved from 2020. The measure will reduce GHG emissions by 100 % in the port and during crossings. The estimated impact of the measure is based on consumption data reported by Ruter for 2019 (Ruter, 2020b). The reduction in emissions arising from the electrification of the island ferries has been estimated at around 700 tonnes CO₂e from 2022. The calculations are based on reported fuel consumption from 2017-2019. Fuel consumption varies greatly with the weather, and an average from the last three years has therefore been assumed. The current operator uses biodiesel (HVO 100), so the reduction in GHG emissions will in reality be lower. Ruter expects traffic on the island ferries to increase (by 8 %) when the Langøyene route opens following restoration, but this route will be covered by electric operation and is therefore not included in the calculation. The high-speed ferries are expected to switch to zero-emission operation under a new contract in 2024, resulting in a reduction in emissions of 2,300 tonnes CO₂e (Port of Oslo, 2018) per year from 2025. To ensure that the impact of the measure is not overestimated, the calculation only includes emission reductions which are expected to occur within the City of Oslo’s boundaries.

Measure 15. Establishment of shore power

The impact of the measure has been calculated to be 3,800 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 3,900 tonnes in 2025 in total for the international ferries and cement ships. The reduction in emissions resulting from the transition to shore power for the international ferries is estimated to be around 2,300 tonnes CO₂e overall for the three ferries “Pearl Seaways”, “Crown Seaways” and “Stena Saga”. The impact will be achieved in 2020. The calculations for Pearl and Crown are based on reported figures concerning the use of shore power in 2019. The calculation for Saga is based on activity data and was taken from the Action plan for Port of Oslo as a Zero-emission Port (Port of Oslo, 2018). Stena Line closed the route to Frederikshavn in spring 2020. Shortly afterwards, DFDS announced that it was planning to launch a new service on the same route, but using the vessels that currently serve the Oslo-Copenhagen route. Whether this will lead to an increase in traffic or reorganisation of the timetable which will result in a reduction in traffic between Oslo and Copenhagen is uncertain, but an increase in traffic is assumed corresponding to what Stena Line has experienced on the route. Overall, there is therefore no change in traffic on the routes between Oslo and Denmark. The reduction in emissions upon transition to shore power for the cement ships at Sydhavna is estimated to be around 1,500 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 1,600 tonnes in 2024. These calculations are based on activity data for 2017 and are taken from the Action plan for Port of Oslo as a Zero-emission Port (Port of Oslo, 2018). For the cement ships, there is some risk of underestimation, as the current method does not reflect fuel consumption to power the large pumps that are used while the vessels are in port.

All quantified measures in the Climate Budget were calculated based on the best available knowledge base and methodology. The measure analysis is based on a series of assumptions concerning changes in variables such as activity levels or technology as a result of measures and instruments that are introduced. There is considerable uncertainty associated with both the magnitude of the emission reductions and the timing of implementation.

The measure analysis in the 2022 Climate Budget is based on updated emission figures for 2019 from the Norwegian Environment Agency’s municipal emissions inventory. Through the climate budget analysis, assumptions are incorporated linked to whether measures or other factors will impact on developments in emissions from 2020 to 2030. For some measures, actual activity data from 2020 is used as a starting point for calculating the future impact. There is uncertainty associated with all prerequisites and assumptions, even though they have been prepared using the latest available knowledge base.

The emission-reducing impact of the measures in the Climate Budget is dependent on actual implementation. The measures must be implemented as planned and without any delays if the overall impact described in the Climate Budget is to be achieved. The emission-reducing impact may be greater or less than estimated.

Table 2 presents an overview of uncertainty linked to the estimated impact of measures in Table 2.2a of Proposition 1/2022, Chapter 2, Climate Budget. The uncertainty is linked to assumptions regarding implementation of the measure (the rate of phasing-in) and the possibility of over- or underestimating impacts. The uncertainty is classified as high, medium or low. An assessment has also been included of the consequences that this will have on the attainment of emission reduction targets in the short term (2025) and the longer term (2030). The consequence is assessed according to the magnitude of the impact of the measure, and is classified as high, medium or low. These are discretionary assessments made by the Agency for Climate.

[1] As regards traffic growth during the years from 2021 to 2030, the figures for 2019 were used as a basis because the coronavirus pandemic has resulted in the distance travelled for taxis in 2020 being lower than normal.

Under proposition 109/20, the City Council adopted the Oslo’s Climate Strategy towards 2030. The strategy has five overarching objectives, along with 16 associated priority areas. Implementation of the strategy is a prerequisite for achieving Oslo’s ambitious climate targets, contributing to emission reductions outside the boundaries of the City of Oslo, and ensuring that Oslo is equipped to meet climate change. As part of the resolution, the City Government will show how the Climate Strategy is being followed up through the annual budgets. A brief description is given below of the key initiatives in 2022 and the work that will be done during the economic plan period under the five main targets (main target 1 is discussed in the previous chapters, as it is part of the Climate Budget).

In addition to the review below, there are also a number of cross-cutting initiatives under the auspices of the municipality which will help to meet several of the targets in the Climate Strategy. One particularly important task will be the revision of the City of Oslo’s land-use section in the municipal master plan in accordance with the visions set out in the societal section for a greener, warmer and more creative city with room for everyone. One of the main aims behind the revision will be to contribute to attainment of the target of a 95 % reduction in GHG emissions in the municipality through urban development along the subway network and the prioritisation of development from the “inside out”, along with the facilitation of a robust city in the face of climate change. Land-use priorities, land for climate measures and provisions in the land-use section of the municipal master plan also represent important prerequisites if Oslo is to achieve its climate targets.

The Norwegian Environment Agency has published a beta version of an emission inventory for land use in Norwegian municipalities. This inventory shows that total carbon absorption in the forestry and land-use sector fell by around 16,000 tonnes CO₂e from 2010 to 2015 (from around -110,000 to -96,000 tonnes CO₂e). Although absorption in forest areas rose during the period, there was an overall decrease due to a rise in emissions from land-use changes (development). The statistics for forestry and land use are published every five years. The next publication is expected in spring 2022. The figures are subject to considerable uncertainty.

In partnership with the Agency for Urban Environment, the Climate Agency has recommended a raft of measures aimed at incorporating climate considerations into the City of Oslo’s forests, in line with the guidance that measures with a positive impact on climate adaptation (both carbon storage and climate adaptation), biodiversity and outdoor recreation are to be given priority. The recommendations only include forests owned by the City of Oslo. Amongst other things, the agencies have recommended further work on underlying data and indicators that can enable developments to be measured more accurately.

Within the building zone, a number of strategic initiatives and projects have been initiated which will bring us closer to achieving our targets. The Oslo Trees project is aiming to plant 100,000 more trees around the city and to take better care of our existing trees. The Agency for Planning and Building Services (PBE) is developing the Green Portal, a database which will provide an overview of the city’s trees and the ecosystem services provided by the urban forest, as a basis for planning and management. PBE is also responsible for the Green Inventory, a land-use inventory which quantifies the extent of green structure in Oslo’s building zone and changes in it. A project has also been initiated to strengthen our knowledge of carbon storage in areas of the building zone.

Total energy consumption in Oslo has fallen compared with 2009. Total energy consumption includes the consumption of electricity, district heating, wood-firing, heating oil/kerosene and petroleum products in the transport sector. No official combined energy inventory is currently compiled for Norwegian municipalities. The figures referred to here are uncertain and compiled on the basis of statistics from Statistics Norway, the Norwegian Environment Agency’s municipal greenhouse gas inventory and the Norwegian District Heating Association. Together with Stavanger, Bergen and Trondheim, the City of Oslo has asked the national authorities to establish a national energy inventory for Norwegian municipalities.

Notwithstanding the uncertainty linked to the underlying data, total energy consumption in Oslo fell during the period 2009-2019. Between 2014 and 2019, the decline was less than in the preceding years. Over the same period, the city saw population growth of around 18 %, which means that the energy savings per capita are actually greater.

The target of a 10 % reduction can probably be achieved by 2030, but this will require a continuing targeted commitment to energy efficiency in all sectors, partly through electrification. The City of Oslo owns both direct and indirect stakes in the energy companies Hafslund E-CO, Fortum Oslo Varme and Elvia. These companies are essential in the electrification of society. Municipal entities are working to reduce energy consumption in their own buildings and to ensure that new buildings are constructed in an energy-efficient manner (based on passive house standards). The City Government is proposing to set aside NOK 9.1 million annually in 2022 and 2023 for the installation of solar panels on many of Oslobygg’s buildings.

Stormwater Management Action Plan

The City of Oslo’s work on stormwater management is the single most important initiative in order to become climate-robust. A targeted effort to develop a climate-robust Oslo is underway, and sustainable management of stormwater and urban flooding are key elements in this process. Numerous measures have been implemented since the Stormwater Management Action Plan was considered at political level in 2019 (proposition 291/19). Thematic maps for stormwater and urban flooding, which are expected to be completed in 2023, and the development of the Stormwater Management Guide, are important prerequisites for implementing many of the other measures in the plan.

The City Government is proposing to increase Chapter 542, Agency for Urban Environment by NOK 2 million in 2022 in order to follow up the municipality’s Stormwater Management Act Plan, a total increase of NOK 27 million during the term of the economic plan. The City of Oslo’s property enterprise is working continuously to delay stormwater on municipal land. The enterprise currently has 15 construction projects in which stormwater management has been integrated. These are expected to be implemented or completed during the term of the economic plan. Common to all is that they have green roofs and other naturally based solutions. Work is underway on the development of a stormwater management communication strategy with the aim of strengthening the communication work relating to stormwater management from 2022.

Other initiatives
From 2022, a number of new or revised instruments will be introduced which will strengthen the efforts being made to ensure that Oslo becomes a climate-robust city. Through the work to revise the land-use section of the municipal master plan, the aim is to take greater account of current and future climate, including not only stormwater, but also other natural events which are being exacerbated by climate change. This will include taking greater account of the preservation and development of blue-green structures, further development of the Green Inventory (see the discussion under the carbon storage target), and the strengthening of risk and vulnerability analyses in planning processes, with a particular focus on ground conditions.

The Agency for Planning and Building Services has developed a set of criteria for climate assessments which are used in the processing of detailed regulations. The criteria for stormwater management and blue-green structures are of particular importance as regards climate adaptation. From 2021, these criteria will also be used in area regulations, which will contribute to more holistic and sustainable solutions for managing both current and future climate.

The regulations concerning the blue-green factor set out minimum requirements for nature-based solutions in housing projects, in other buildings and in connection with land use. The strategy for green roofs and façades is another tool which will strengthen nature-based solutions in the city. Both of these documents will be finalised in 2021 and will help to ensure that climate considerations are given greater priority in connection with construction projects and land use.

One important task which will enhance the city’s climate resilience in 2022 and during the term of the economic plan is the re-establishment and restoration of the natural environment in Marka and the city. The Agency for Urban Environment is responsible for this task and is planning to restore one or two wetland areas a year during the term of the economic plan. Stream reinstatement in Klosterenga will commence in 2021, and the reinstatement of Hovinbekken in Østre parkdrag will be completed by late autumn 2023. Flower meadows will be established as part of these projects. The Oslo Trees project is another important initiative which will enable the city to withstand both higher rainfall and higher temperatures.

A number of processes are underway to reduce Oslo’s contribution to GHG emissions outside the city’s boundaries (indirect, consumption-based GHG emissions). Central to these is the municipality’s consumption strategy «Future consumption – strategy for sustainable and reduced consumption 2019-2030», which was adopted in 2019. The strategy sets out how the city’s inhabitants, the municipality’s entities and the business community can use more sustainable alternatives. Material consumption will be reduced by sharing, renting, borrowing, repairing, reusing, recycling and buying second hand.

The Agency for Urban Environment has drawn up a list of measures to promote sustainable and reduced consumption which have been incorporated into the City Government’s proposed budget for 2022. Funding schemes for projects and pilots have already been initiated to promote reuse amongst the municipal entities. The City of Oslo’s work relating to environmental management and certification is also an important tool in the efforts being made to reduce indirect emissions.

Indicators for consumption-based GHG emissions
During 2021, a set of indicators will be developed for sustainable and reduced consumption for the City of Oslo’s own operations and the Oslo community. Several of the municipal entities are involved in this project, which is an R&D partnership with three research organisations (OsloMet/SIFO, NORSUS and CICERO). The aim of the project is to develop indicators which illustrate consumption trends in Oslo, both amongst inhabitants and the municipal entities and within the business community. The Agency for Urban Environment has received funding from the Klimasats grant scheme to continue some of this work beyond 2021.

In order to analyse indirect GHG emissions from road transport, the project is using a consumer-based model as a starting point. This model is based on the number of kilometres driven per year by all types of vehicles registered in Oslo and journeys made by persons resident in the municipality. The preliminary findings show that journeys made by the inhabitants account for by far the largest contribution both to the number of vehicle kilometres driven and to indirect emissions, followed by transport within the business community. The results indicate a modest increase in travel amongst the City of Oslo’s own employees, while use of the municipality’s own vehicles has decreased somewhat. The number of vehicle-kilometres rose slightly for both Oslo residents and the business community in the municipality during the period 2017-2019. The results also indicate that the increase in the use of electric cars as a substitute for petrol and diesel cars, the transition to biofuels such as biogas and the increase in the use of public transport services resulted in a reduction in indirect emissions during the period.

In order to assess a trajectory towards more sustainable and reduced food consumption, the quantity of food purchased by the City of Oslo is being analysed as an indicator of food consumption. Preliminary findings indicate that the consumption of fish, chocolate and sugar/artificial sweeteners, edible oils and fats, grain and legume products and fresh vegetables rose significantly during the period 2017-2019. Meat consumption also increased slightly during the period, while the consumption of fresh fruit and frozen and canned vegetables fell. The preliminary calculations indicate that this resulted in a slight increase in total indirect emissions from food, while the weight of purchased food decreased.  This suggests that more food with a higher indirect discharge per kilogram was purchased in 2019 compared with 2017.

Climate requirements in procurements
Targeted and systematic work relating to the imposition of climate requirements in procurements which impact on indirect emissions is a new and wide-ranging priority area. In 2018, AsplanViak analysed the climate footprint of the City of Oslo’s own operations with a focus on the joint procurement agreements dating from 2016. The analysis showed that the majority of the climate footprint from the municipality’s activities originates from the purchase of goods and services, and that the joint procurement agreements account for just under 10 % of the total climate footprint of the municipal entities. A number of processes have been initiated to reduce emissions resulting from the municipality’s procurements. The municipality has developed a guide for reduced and smarter use of plastic in procurements, along with a guide to the circular economy in procurements. The latter explains how the municipal entities can contribute to sustainable and reduced consumption through measures such as prioritising reuse, repair and upgrading over new purchases. The municipality is also aware that additional measures may be appropriate in order to reduce indirect emissions linked to transport under goods and services contracts, and will therefore consider the imposition of requirements across more of the transport chain. Indirect emissions from the municipality’s own vehicle and machinery fleet can be reduced if businesses share machinery and vehicles both internally and with each other, as well as through the procurement of sharing services where possible. The Agency for Improvement and Development is assessing this in more detail.

Targets for reduced emissions from construction materials
Emissions associated with the production and handling of construction materials are amongst the largest sources of emissions outside Oslo’s boundaries, both from the City of Oslo’s operations and from across the city as a whole. Reducing such emissions will be important in meeting the goal of the Climate Strategy that Oslo’s contributions to GHG emissions outside the municipality will be significantly lower in 2030 than in 2020, and «The City Government shall» point: «By 2021, we shall set a quantified target for reductions in consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions from municipal construction projects».

As mentioned previously, the City Government is now working to set an ambitious target to reduce GHG emissions from the use of materials by its own entities. This work is viewed in light of the goals of the C40’s Clean Construction Declaration, which the City of Oslo has endorsed. A digital tool will be developed for use in connection with life-cycle calculations in building and construction procurements. This will be important in the planning, comparison, follow-up and reporting of indirect emissions in building and construction projects. Standard specifications of requirements for purpose-built buildings will also be developed to meet strict climate and environmental requirements for the municipality’s buildings.

Dramatically Reducing Embodied Carbon
Through the Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance (CNCA), the City of Oslo is participating in the Dramatically Reducing Embodied Carbon project, which aims to develop a framework for cities seeking to reduce their consumption-based emissions within building and construction projects, infrastructure and urban development. The aim is to examine the instruments that cities or municipalities have at their disposal to influence indirect emissions from this sector, e.g. through requirements, administrative decisions and regulations. Through the project, the City of Oslo will receive feedback on which potential measures and instruments will be most effective in reducing these emissions.

Cities4Forests
The City of Oslo has endorsed the international “Call for Action on Forests and Climate” concerning the conservation of forests and sustainable forest management. The municipality is in dialogue with Cities4Forests regarding regulations concerning the purchase of timber from sustainable logging in order to avoid products which have caused tropical deforestation. Many measures under the auspices of Cities4Forests are being assessed.

Sustainable food
Food generates large quantities of indirect emissions. The City of Oslo aims to significantly reduce meat consumption in the municipality’s canteens and institutions, while at the same time facilitating a more plant-based diet. The key guidelines are set out in the City Government Declaration 2019-2023, the strategy for sustainable and reduced consumption 2019-2023 and the Climate Strategy for Oslo towards 2030. The City Government is working to halve food waste per capita by 2030. Meat consumption will be halved by 2023, and the proportion of fruit, vegetables, legumes and seasonal goods will be increased amongst municipal entities. The indicator project for reduced and sustainable consumption and consumption-based GHG emissions will provide important information about trends in food consumption in Oslo. The Agency for Improvement and Development, the Agency for Urban Environment and the Nursing Home Agency have all been allocated funding from the Klimasats grant scheme for work relating to sustainable food and the reduction of food waste. The Agency for Improvement and Development will be the municipality’s driving force, coordinator and facilitator in the efforts being made to promote healthy and sustainable food. One measure will be to establish a sharing platform for climate-friendly menus in the municipality. UKE will also work to ensure that the municipality’s joint procurement agreements support the City Government’s ambitions and goals in this area, as well as help other businesses within the municipality to use procurement strategically to reduce meat consumption and promote plant-based diets.

The work relating to sustainable food also forms part of the municipality’s work concerning urban agriculture, plastics and marine littering, as well as that relating to environmental management and Eco-Lighthouse certification within the municipality. The Agency for Urban Environment is contributing to guidance for use by municipal service centres in the transition to sustainable and healthy food with reduced food waste, partly through the Horizon2020 project FUSILLI: “Fostering the Urban Food System Transformation Through Innovative Living Labs Implementation”. Together with eleven other cities, the City of Oslo will look at solutions for sustainable food and establish a «living laboratory» to test solutions. The municipality is also participating in the C40 Food Systems Network, which has collectively created the «Good Food Cities Declaration».